POINT OF VIEW

Vol. 1 2024
Point of View Q2 2023 Edition
Vol. 2 2023
Point of View Q1 2023 Edition
Q1 2023
FALSE ADVERTISING: WHY TREASURY INFLATION PROTECTED SECURITIES (TIPS) FAILED TO PROTECT WHEN INFLATION PROTECTION WAS NEEDED MOST
“It does exactly what it says on the tin,” as they say in England: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)—inflation protection! Yet in 2022, a year characterized by the worst bout of global inflation in decades, the TIPS index fell -11.9%. Understanding the mechanics of TIPS will explain why they failed to protect investors against inflation in 2022 and better prepare investors for 2023 and beyond.
Q1 2023
BECOMING A “HIRO”: HOW THE “METAVERSE” MIGHT UPEND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AFTER ALL
Macro investors get bogged down in arguments about GDP, inflation, central banks, and interest rates. Yet significant changes in how we see and interact with the world are happening that matter far more than your 2023 GDP call. So join us and explore the “Metaverse.”
Q1 2023
SOLVING THE HOUSING CRISIS: BUILD MORE, BUILD UP
While on our Q1 business travels, we heard a common refrain: housing is too expensive! We consulted a unique data set and plotted the relationship between the supply of housing units and house prices. Areas with more building activity in the last decade also feature cheaper housing. Conversely, countries that built less have seen more significant price increases. We suggest a trial solution: build more, build up.
Q1 2023
SHIFT YOUR FOCUS FROM CPI TO UPI: HOW UNIFIED PAYMENTS INTERFACE IS REVOLUTIONIZING PAYMENTS IN INDIA
After a year of discussions centered around inflation, where the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was mentioned daily, one member of the Economics Team visited his family in India for the first time since the spread of COVID-19 began. Apart from friends and family, he missed how India’s widespread adoption of digital payments centered around its Unified Payments Interface (UPI) might be a model for the world.
Q1 2023
Point of View Q4 2022 Edition
Q4 2022
NOTHING’S INEVITABLE: THE CASE FOR A “SOFT LANDING” IN 2023
The consensus among investors is that aggressive Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening will soon lead to a U.S. recession. But what if economic growth persists despite Fed interest rate hikes? Or what if inflation moderates, the Fed backs off, and economic growth rebounds? While not yet our base case, the above scenarios are still a case investors should consider. Here’s the case for a soft landing in 2023.
Q4 2022
GONE WHEN YOU NEED IT MOST: DOES THE U.S. TREASURY MARKET FACE LIQUIDITY ISSUES?
Liquidity issues in the U.K. government bond market last fall sparked concerns about similar problems in the U.S. Treasury market. So is the media frenzy much ado about nothing, or is there cause for concern? We detail the overlooked ways the U.S. financial system has evolved that may threaten liquidity and force the central bank to respond.
Q4 2022
DESKTOP DEFLATION: EVOLUTION IN THE PRICE OF THE MODERN WORKSPACE SINCE 1983
Despite seeing a resurgence of inflation to rates we haven’t seen since the 1980s, the tools to generate income we have in the 2020s are more powerful and affordable than they were in the 1980s. We compare how many hours of work at the prevailing average hourly wages it took to afford a workspace in the 1980s versus today.
Q4 2022
CHIPS OFF THE OLD BLOCK: THE PAST AND PRESENT OF SEMICONDUCTORS
It’s old-fashioned to say oil is the economy’s lifeblood. “Chips,” a term for integrated circuits made from semiconductor material packed with transistors, power the global economy and determine geopolitical supremacy.
Q4 2022
Point of View Q3 2022 Edition
Q3 2022
Manufacturing Housing: The Key To More Affordable Housing
House prices are at all-time highs, stretching affordability for millions of Americans. Yet, factory-built homes, commonly called “manufactured housing,” offer the most straightforward path to more affordable housing for millions of people. So what’s holding “manufactured” housing back?
Q3 2022
The Original Stable Coin: Sterling And The Enduring Myth Of Monetary "Stability"
So-called “stablecoins” garnered lots of media, investor, and central banker attention in 2022. As with much of financial history, this is nothing new under the sun. In fact, the nine-and-a-half century history of another currency, the British pound sterling, offers interesting parallels and lessons on the key characteristics of money. The overarching lesson in our view: stability is a chimera.
Q3 2022
Endowment Education: What We Know About College Endowments
The National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO) publishes an annual report on college endowments. We visualized some of the report's data, which covers more than 600 schools with combined endowments of more than $800 billion. We have fun with the data to show four different perspectives on endowments.
Q3 2022
Barking Up The Wrong Tree: What Pets And Vets Teach Us About The Covid-19 Economic Recovery
Pet owners can’t get an appointment with a veterinarian. A Covid-inspired “pet adoption boom” seems to be the preferred media narrative. But is it true? We discuss how the pet adoption boom theory is wrong and why there still might appear to be a shortage of vets. Whether you prefer cats or dogs, we suspect you will learn something about the post-Covid economic recovery.
Q3 2022
Point of View Q2 2022 Edition
Q2 2022
The U.K. Royal Society for The Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures, and Commerce: What the Heck It Is and Why It Matters
Andy Haldane, the Bank of England's chief economist, stepped down from his position in 2021 to become the Royal Society for Arts, Manufactures, and Commerce's chief executive officer (otherwise known as the Society). To better understand today's social groups, this article examines an obscure British society that was created nearly 300 years ago.
Q2 2022
All Is Fair in Love and “Economic Warfare”: Globalization, Sanctions, and the U.S. Dollar
In February 2022, Russia took the world by surprise when it invaded Ukraine. Economic sanctions on the aggressors alarmed investors, who thought the world order had been upended by the rapid response to the invasion. A more cautious set of economic conclusions should be drawn notwithstanding the catastrophic repercussions in Ukraine for humanity.
Q2 2022
Some Things Never Change: The Price Of Nails Since 1695
What kind of picture may be painted of the evolution of the economy through time? Daniel Sichel, an economist at Wellesley College, suggests using nails. We demonstrate how the price of nails can be used as a gauge of macroeconomic trends.
Q2 2022
The Powell Put: Monetary Policy, Stock Market Declines, and the Real Economy
People question how far the Fed will go to control inflation after a bumpy financial market debut this year. Will a market crash prompt central bankers to rethink their approach? Today's market conditions are discussed, as well as the history of monetary policy involvement, from the time of Alan Greenspan to now.
Q2 2022
Point of View Fall 2021 Edition
Fall 2021
How We Learned To Stop Worrying About Tapering: Lessons from 2013
The word “tapering” continues to strike fear in most bond investors’ hearts because it brings up memories of the last time the Fed reduced its asset purchases, a period that led to increased volatility in markets. But should it? Misconceptions loom large. We provide the antidote.
Fall 2021
INFLATION: WHAT (ALMOST) EVERYONE GETS WRONG
As the inflation debate continues, we weigh in on what we think (almost) everyone is missing. While economists track the prices of a basket of consumer goods over time to gauge the purchasing power of money, inflation consists of much more than just seeing higher prices at the gas pump or the grocery store. This article explores the most common misconceptions and fears about the issue and shows that inflation is not always bad...and is often misunderstood.
Fall 2021
WHOSE INFLATION IS IT ANYWAY? THIRTY YEARS OF PRICES
Everyone has an opinion on inflation. When we tell clients, friends, colleagues, or family members that inflation is “running at 2-3%” we’re often met with anger and stares of incredulity. “Have you put a child through college?” some ask wryly. We dissect the famous Consumer Price Index, displaying 88 price categories covering around 80,000 individual prices that go into constructing the index. Choose your own price adventure and examine the data.
Fall 2021
IRONWARS: HOW A BOND INVESTOR ENDURES TRIATHLONS AND FINANCIAL VOLATILITY
Natalie Trevithick, a Director at Payden & Rygel and Head of Investment Grade Corporates, has completed 14 Ironman Triathlon races across North America. In this essay, she breaks the grueling 140.6-mile race into its three components and draws parallels to the corporate bond market.
Fall 2021
Point of View Spring 2021 Edition
Spring 2021
Fact or Fiction?: Investigating the Popular Narratives About the Minimum Wage
Ever wondered what a $15 federal minimum wage would mean for your portfolio? We cut through the political noise to get to the heart of the matter by investigating what emperical evidence tells us.
Spring 2021
Why We Must Go Now: The Case for Space Colonization
Firms like Virgin Galactic, Space X, and Blue Origin have captured popular attention on the quest to colonize Mars. Pipe dreams cooked up by wealthy plutocrats, you say? On the contrary, we think a flourishing Martian civilization is an urgent obligation—both for the economy and the future of the human species.
Spring 2021
Big Human Projects: Putting Large Projects into Context
How does the record amount of spending focused on ending the Covid-19 pandemic compare to other large projects in human history? To compare and contrast, we estimated the share of societal wealth devoted to each project at various points in history.
Spring 2021
From Junky to Juicy: The Case for High-Yield Bonds
How did a speculative asset class go from being referred to as "junk" to being thought of as an integral part of any investment portfolio? We review the evolution of the high-yield asset class, critical features of high-yield bonds, and how past performance showcases their resilience.
Spring 2021
Point of View Winter 2021 Edition
Winter 2021
THE PLANT-BASED REVOLUTION: HOW CONSUMERS ARE FIGHTING THE WORLD’S MOST PRESSING ISSUES WITH FORKS INSTEAD OF KNIVES
If you’ve browsed an online menu or shopped for groceries recently, you’ve probably noticed a growing trend—labeling that identifies plant-based meals or products. Told from the perspective of a vegetarian, this article explores the rise in plant-based diets and their implications on, well, everything.
Winter 2021
GOING ONCE, GOING TWICE...SOLD! THE IMPACT OF AUCTION THEORY ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
Last year, Paul Milgrom and Robert Wilson won the Nobel Prize for “improvements to auction theory and inventions of new auction formats.” Auction theory? Really? Here, we examine how auctions impact our lives and show how better auction design leads to better economic outcomes. Ideas can be as important as hardware and software in driving economic growth.
Winter 2021
BUILT TO LAST: LONG-LIVED INSTITUTIONS
“If these walls could talk,” goes the adage. Human civilization dates back roughly 10,000 years. And, remarkably, some human institutions, ranging from confectionaries to places of worship, have survived—and thrived!—long past the expiration date on the humans who founded them. Adapting and evolving through wars, depressions, and, yes, pandemics, some institutions are still marching on in 2020. What are the key characteristics of the survivors? We inquire.
Winter 2021
DOLLAR DETHRONED? WHY THE U.S. DOLLAR’S EXORBITANT PRIVILEGE IS STRONGER THAN EVER
Famous market commentators once again sound the alarm on the U.S. dollar, but we think the dollar doomsayers are wrong. Last March’s financial panic demonstrated that the U.S. dollar remains the world’s reserve currency—and that the dollar will continue its reign for the foreseeable future. Understanding the dollar’s strength may also help global macro investors understand what might unseat the dollar.
Winter 2021
Point of View Fall 2020 Edition
Fall 2020
I, LETTUCE: HOW ONE PERSON’S JOURNEY TO PROCURE A LEAFY GREEN FOR A HAM SANDWICH EXPLAINS THE ECONOMY
A missing leafy green substance is all you need in order to realize how complex the economy is ... and how much your wealth depends upon it.
Fall 2020
COLLEGES IN CRISIS: IS THIS THE END OF HIGHER ED AS WE KNOW IT?
Is the death of the university finally upon us? We doubt it. Sure, learning can happen virtually, but the “college experience” has always been about way more than just classes, homework, exams, and term papers
Fall 2020
WHERE DID THE TIME GO? WHAT THE AVERAGE PERSON DID IN A DAY (PRE-COVID)
There’s only so much time in a day. Here we look at how the average, employed American adult spent their weekday by breaking it down by the minute. It’s not just the price of goods and services that matters, but whether there is time in the day to use them!
Fall 2020
STOP CALLING IT “WORK FROM HOME”: THE POSITIVE CASE FOR REMOTE WORK
“Work from home.” The phrase alone sounds like such a drag. We’ve all become acquainted with its downsides and pitfalls, and many readers ache for a return to normalcy. However, there is a positive case for remote work, and this is it.
Fall 2020
Point of View Spring 2020 Edition
Spring 2020
THE FUTURE OF FOOD: CLOUD KITCHENS AND THE REMAKING OF FOOD DELIVERY
Just a few months ago, when we mentioned food delivery, most people would scoff. “Food delivery? That’s not a viable business.” It’s funny how quickly things change. Now, food-delivery services are viewed by many as “essential services” (and rightly so!). We cut through the grease, bring the key issues to a simmer, and box up the topics for the reader to feast upon. Hold the pickles.
Spring 2020
THE GREAT INFLUENZA: THE STORY OF THE GREATEST MODERN PANDEMIC AND ITS LESSONS FOR 2020 AND BEYOND
The world now faces another major pandemic. While the death toll in the current pandemic is still but a fraction of the greatest modern pandemic of the 1918 Spanish flu, there are valuable lessons from a century ago that can put our current predicament in perspective. We explore.grease, bring the key issues to a simmer, and box up the topics for the reader to feast upon. Hold the pickles.
Spring 2020
LIFE AFTER THE DEATH OF MOVIE THEATERS
The movie theater business has died and come back to life more times than a bad horror movie villain. New innovations, such as television, videotapes, DVDs, and pirated movies on the internet, have threatened to end the idea of spending a night at the movies. But, will the rise of online streaming—coupled with stay-at-home theater closures—finally sound the death knell for the movie theater business?
Spring 2020
Point of View Winter 2020 Edition
Winter 2020
GAMERS OF THE WORLD UNITE: ONLINE GAMING AS A GLIMPSE INTO THE FUTURE OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
Video games draw the ire of social commentators and parents alike. Put aside your opinions on gamers and imagine what online gatherings might mean for the future of economic organizations.
Winter 2020
NIRP REDUX: IS NEGATIVE INTEREST RATE POLICY (NIRP) A “CURE” WORSE THAN THE DISEASE?
Like a bad dream that won’t end, negative rates continue to haunt global investors. Having first addressed negative interest rate policy (NIRP) in a 2016 article, we revisit the topic and double down on our original take: NIRP harms the very institutions an economy needs to thrive.
Winter 2020
A GLOBAL HEALTH CHECK-UP
Healthcare is at the forefront of policy debates worldwide. We look at healthcare outcomes and spending in the fifty largest countries on Earth (by population). Results vary. Take a look at the data and make your own diagnosis.
Winter 2020
GOING TO THE MATTRESSES: OUR LOOK AT THE BED-IN-A-BOX BATTLE RESHAPING MATTRESS RETAIL
Will investors be awakened from a deep slumber to realize bed-in-a-box retail dreams were profit-less, money-losing nightmares all along? We jump on the box springs and explore.
Winter 2020
Point of View Fall 2019 Edition
Fall 2019
A RIVER RUNS THROUGH IT: THE RHINE RIVER AND THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY
The impediments to a bustling euro area economy are so well known it seems silly to repeat them here. Such concerns will not stop us, dear reader. A crippled banking system. Lack of fiscal union. A heavy regulatory burden. Unending political uncertainty. One you may not hear mentioned: river water levels. Yes, it’s 2019, but a river snaking through the heart of Europe may explain at least part of the recent weakness in global economic activity.
Fall 2019
UNDER THE INFLUENCE: THE BRAVE NEW WORLD OF TRENDSETTING SUPERSTARS
Fashion, style, and beauty used to mean whatever adorned the models that graced the pages of magazines or floated down runways in Paris. No longer. Just as the internet caused upheaval in newspapers, books, music, politics and more, fashionistas everywhere now bow to a new trendsetter: the internet-enabled influencer. We chronicle the rise of the influencer, the vast array of products and services now rendered, and the gritty supply chain that makes it all possible. A new, genuine future scene or just another Instagram-boyfriend shot? You decide.
Fall 2019
PAY FOR PLAY: THE ATHLETES WHO MAKE IT RAIN
Not a day goes by without a headline of another athlete signing a record-breaking contract. We present the 20 highest paid athletes in 1995, 2007, and 2019. Times have changed: from the dominance of boxing, to golf goliaths, to soccer sensations. If you’re wondering which sport to pick up next for a big payday, wonder no longer. FALL 2019
Fall 2019
WASTE NOT, WANT NOT: COMING SOON TO A MUNICIPAL MARKET NEAR YOU!
The world produces more than two billion tons of waste each year. Where does it all go? Until recently, the developed world dumped its waste in the developing world. However, countries like China no longer want to be the world’s dumping ground. What are the options for countries like the U.S.? We examine the “trashy” underbelly of the global economy.
Fall 2019
Point of View Summer 2019 Edition
Summer 2019
MILITARY COUPS AND MARKETS: WHAT A NEW GLOBAL DATABASE REVEALS ABOUT POLITICAL LEADERSHIP CHANGES
Politics and financial markets make strange, but regular, bedfellows. Political bias clouds judgment. Political posturing clouds rational policymaking. Nevertheless, there are few things investors discuss more publicly than politics. Using a global dataset of political leaders which spans from 1875-2015, we make empirical observations about a famously anecdotal domain. Readers might think twice trading ahead of an election!
Summer 2019
“AUDIO-BOOM”: PODCASTING AND THE SECOND GOLDEN AGE OF AUDIO
A second golden age of audio is upon us in the flood of “podcasts” available at the touch of a button. But the industry resembles the Wild West, not a finely-tuned broadcasting machine. Will the podcast kill the radio star or are podcast listeners riding a trend that will never go mainstream due to the fragmented, quirky nature of the industry? We explore.
Summer 2019
STOCKS FOR THE LONG RUN? ANOTHER LOOK AT 224 YEARS OF RETURNS
We’ve all heard the investment advice: “hold stocks for the long run.” We string together data going back to 1793 to paint a new picture. In 82 of the 210 years for which we have data (39% of the time), bonds outperformed stocks (annual total returns). Nothing is inevitable, no natural law governs returns. Stocks for the long run? Maybe, but not always.
Summer 2019
TAKING A LAP AROUND THE GLOBAL MOTORSPORT: WHAT DRIVES THE FINANCE OF FORMULA 1?
High-speed twists and turns are common in the world of business and motorsport. Formula 1 (F1) is the pinnacle of modern motorsport, with drivers experiencing fighter jet G-forces, while moving at speeds beyond 200 miles per hour. F1 is one of the few truly global sports leagues. Recognizing this, Liberty Media purchased the league for a cool $8 billion in 2016. We buckle up and pull out of the pit lane to understand what drives the business of Formula 1.
Summer 2019
Point of View Spring 2019 Edition
Spring 2019
SMALL IS BEAUTIFUL: THE MICROMOBILITY EXPLOSION
Tiny, electric motor-powered machines litter sidewalks from Venice, CA to Rio De Janeiro to Shanghai. A passing fad and resident nuisance? Or an infant industry on its way to billion-dollar behemoth status? We traveled to a conference of enthusiasts, industry insiders, and out-of-their-mind entrepreneurs to inspect and inquire. Get ready for the micromobility explosion—and revolution.
Spring 2019
NEO-CHARTALISTS OR NEO-CHARLATANS? A DIVE INTO MODERN MONETARY THEORY
A small revolution is brewing in the world of macroeconomics. It’s an idea that counts a Democratic socialist presidential candidate and a hedge fund manager among its adherents. We speak here of Modern Monetary Theory, popularly known as MMT. In what follows, we break down MMT’s foundational underpinnings, evaluate some of its claims, and conclude that while it may be plausible at face value, investors would do well to doubt its legitimacy.
Spring 2019
A BLAST FROM THE BRITISH PAST: A LOOK AT A GLOBAL INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO IN AUGUST 1929 THEORY
A Payden colleague kindly shared a distant relative’s 1929 investment portfolio. Ninety years later you might be surprised how little has changed. From sovereign and municipal debt (City of Berlin, anyone?) to corporate bonds (Southern Manchurian Railway?) and preferred stock (fancy a glass of Guinness?), this was a well diversified and truly global portfolio.
Spring 2019
GAMBLERS’ FALLACIES RECTIFIED: A TRIP TO VEGAS WITH DATA THEORY
Show us a society and we’ll show you money wagered on diversions. The history of humans betting on games of chance and sporting events extends back to 4000 BCE. We write in these pages neither to condone nor to condemn the activity but to report on it. Using a custom-built Nevada Gaming Control Board dataset, we explore changes afoot in various luck-oriented activities.
Spring 2019
Point of View Winter 2019 Edition
Winter 2019
ESBies: A CURE FOR EUROZONE RISK OR ANOTHER INEFFECTIVE REMEDY? ECONOMY
January 2019 marked 20 years since the launch of the euro—the most obvious sign of European economic and political integration. Decades in the making, the project is not yet complete. As evidenced by a renewed bout of concern in 2018 over the Italian fiscal situation and banking system, we think the Eurosystem is missing a key component of the financial architecture. We explain and explore one possible solution: ESBies. Economy. Here, 20 years later, we dust off the ‘ol book and put the authors’ claims to the test. Just how durable were the models used? What we find is indeed a robust manual for understanding important developments in the 21st century economy.
Winter 2019
A BRIDGE (LOAN) TOO FAR? COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE LENDING AND THE U.S. ECONOMY
We are witnessing market evolution in real-time. Commercial real estate collateralized loan obligations (CRE CLOs) have experienced explosive growth in just a few years. What are they? How do they work? What risks lurk in their structure? And what is all this new money financing? We take a deep breath and then a deep dive into a burgeoning sector.
Winter 2019
DIARY OF A TREASURY SECRETARY: A LOOK BACK AT THE GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS
Ten years have come and gone since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. How best to commemorate the crisis and the passing of time since? We decided to take you, dear reader, back in time and put you at the desk of a person at the epicenter of the tumult, Hank Paulson. We invite you to look out upon the world from his perspective—the frantic phone calls, a slew of back-to-back meetings, all with the aim of gathering bits and pieces of information—to make sense of, and put a stop to, the spreading financial panic.
Winter 2019
HOUSING: IS THE CANARY SINGING?
U.S. home sales, housing starts, and prices all faltered in 2018; signs of the business cycle’s imminent end, many claim. We demur. We opined on housing in an article in these pages five years ago and write again to assess our prognostications and update our analysis. Housing is more complex a subject than meets the media clickbait eye and probably not the canary in the coal mine indicating this cycle’s end.
Winter 2019
Point of View Fall 2018 Edition
Fall 2018
PLAYING BY THE INFORULES: REVISITING A GUIDE TO THE 21ST CENTURY ECONOMY
In 1999, Hal Varian and Carl Shapiro published Information Rules: A Strategic Guide to the Network Economy. Here, 20 years later, we dust off the ‘ol book and put the authors’ claims to the test. Just how durable were the models used? What we find is indeed a robust manual for understanding important developments in the 21st century economy.
Fall 2018
THE ART OF THE TRADE WAR: PUTTING TARIFFS INTO PERSPECTIVE
Dust off that economics textbook and open to the chapter on trade. Don’t read it. We can tell you what it says: “free trade is great, everyone wins, and protectionist measures in any shape or form are terrible.” As with most economic topics, the reality is more complex. And when those realities conflict with politics, alarmist headlines are quick to follow. We provide a few lessons for investors panicked from the constant barrage of headlines.
Fall 2018
LARGER AND SPARSER: A STORY OF THE LARGEST 25 CITIES IN THE WORLD
The world is urbanizing. That, everyone knows. A more city-centered world promises collaboration, clustering, and innovation. As minds meet, wealth flourishes. However, critics complain that migration from the countryside to the city implies a hot, crowded, and expensive dystopian future. Is it true? We investigate and explain.
Fall 2018
DON’T WORRY, BBB HAPPY: GIVING CORPORATE LEVERAGE THE SNIFF TEST
They didn’t know it at the time, but when bond issuers and investors emerged from the year 1900, their world would be irrevocably changed. The fast and loose, often local bank-driven, corporate financing markets of the post-Civil War era gave way to the first ever, fearsome and stalwart, corporate bond rating agency. Given bond ratings’ remarkable importance in securities markets today, we sat down to look at important changes in one segment of the U.S. investment grade corporate bond market: BBBs.
Fall 2018
Point of View Summer 2018 Edition
Summer 2018
BUFFETT ON BONDS: THE ORACLE OF OMAHA OPINES ON FIXED INCOME INVESTING
Decades after Babe Ruth set down the bat, young baseball fans quizzed their elders: “Did you ever see him play?” To forestall such questions from our offspring, we visited the investment world’s holy land: Omaha. Each May, Berkshire Hathaway (the world’s eighth largest company) holds its annual meeting, where its businesses hawk their wares and Chair Warren Buffett and Vice Chair Charlie Munger field questions from the more than 40,000 shareholders in attendance. Among them this year? The Payden Economics Team. More than mere Berkshire fanatics, we sought out the Oracle of Omaha’s fixed income-related wisdom.
Summer 2018
SPORTING SUCCESS: ARE COLLEGE ATHLETIC COACHES WORTH EVERY PENNY?
After ten years of smashing success, your alma mater’s high-profile coach has stumbled. Should he or she be fired? Are Athletic Directors (ADs)—presumed to be the “boss” of the coach—as guilty as investors when it comes to chasing performance? We survey a history of college football data and find that coaching matters more than you might think. The knee-jerk firing favored by ADs/fans after one or two bad seasons is ultimately detrimental to the program’s long-term performance.
Summer 2018
THE NAKED TRUTH: THE GLOBAL ORIGINS OF THE CLOTHES IN YOUR CLOSET
Where are your clothes made? You might be surprised, as the global export powerhouses of apparel and clothing have changed over time. We dig through the closet of macroeconomic data for various categories of garments and find that your wardrobe is truly global, with places as far flung as Morocco and Pakistan providing pieces of apparel.
Summer 2018
R-STAR WARS: A NEW HOPE FOR MARKETS AND MONETARY POLICY
A few years ago, as interest rates dipped near zero in the U.S. and into negative territory around the globe, a curious term gained prominence in some circles: r* (pronounced: “r-star”). R* is shorthand for the real natural rate of interest. The problem? Nobody knows where r* is in real-time and use of the term in modern central banking has completely flipped the purpose of a natural rate on its head. While you have to understand r* to interpret central bank speak in 2018, you should also know the origin of and uncertainty surrounding the natural rate concept.
Summer 2018
Point of View Spring 2018 Edition
Spring 2018
FOR WHOM THE BELL TOLLS: QUICK SERVICE RESTAURANTS AND THE RISE OF TACO BELL
Don’t look now, but the heat is on in the U.S. quick service restaurant (QSR) industry. Spicy, quick service contenders serving Mexican food have seen sales grow at 1.5x the rate of the broader QSR industry since 2011. At the top of tortilla stack? Taco Bell. Whether you are a confi rmed member of the Belluminati or just enjoy the occasional fourth meal, we invite our readers to Live Más on a tour of the Mexican quick service restaurant industry and witness its potential for global growth in the years ahead.
Spring 2018
CHANGING THE GUARD: NEW FED LEADERSHIP AND WHAT’S AHEAD FOR THE WORLD’S MOST IMPORTANT CENTRAL BANK
A change in leadership often sparks intrigue from investors—particularly when the leader is the Chair of the world’s most important central bank. Newly-minted Fed Chair Jerome Powell arrives without a common credential on the CVs of modern central bankers: a Ph.D. We worry not. We think investors should pay more attention to the unprecedented number of vacancies on the Fed Board of Governors and the underlying macroeconomic data for clues about the future of interest rates. Circumstances determine the direction of monetary policy far more than the character at the helm, we argue.
Spring 2018
BIG SCREEN, BIG DATA
Moviegoers eagerly check them. Studio heads shake fists at them. Data geeks harvest and study them. We are talking, of course, about online movie reviews and box office information. For many, today’s box office scene is characterized as much by the publicly available information about how movies are performing as it is about the movies themselves. With the help of the internet, we take a look at some of the trends afoot in the wild world of blockbusters and find that the days of one-off, domestic hits are fading. In their place stand global franchises—and they are here to stay.
Spring 2018
PEDALING PROGRESS: BICYCLES AND THE PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE OF GLOBAL TRANSPORT
Many of the best minds of a generation are working on “it.” It could change the way we get from Point A to Point B, end the world’s dependence on fossils fuels, and promote a sustainable future for our children. Autonomous, self-driving cars? No. Bicycles. Well, bicycles and their newfangle of spring that now come equipped with motors and batteries. Call them “electric mobile transport,” electric bikes, or “e-bikes.” E-bikes may hold the potential to change transportation fundamentally—no LIDAR or fancy “A.I.” software required.
Spring 2018
Point of View Winter 2018 Edition
Winter 2018
WHODUNIT? THE LOW VOLATILITY MYSTERY EXAMINED
By late 2017, volatility reached all-time lows, at least as measured by popular “risk” gauges, such as the oft-cited VIX index. The media and many investors attribute the “low vol” environment to complacency or the calm before the next financial storm. Central bankers scratch their collective heads pondering the cause. Why was volatility so low and does it tell us anything about the future? We put on our detective hats and seek out possible “suspects” behind this global phenomenon.
Winter 2018
THE REAL MOST INTERESTING MAN IN THE WORLD: BILL PHILLIPS AND THE “PHILLIPS CURVE”
His name was Bill. Alban William Housego “A.W.” Phillips, to be exact. Born in New Zealand, he was a crocodile hunter, cinema manager, member of the Royal Air Force, prisoner of war, and later, Member of the Order of the British Empire (MBE). Oh, and then he became one of history’s most cited economists, with the advent of the “Phillips Curve” in a paper published in 1958. We chronicle the rise of a man, the myth propagated based on his work, and the legend that still lingers over markets.
Winter 2018
WANNA GET AWAY? GLOBAL TRAVEL AND THE PRICE OF A BEDROOM IN THE AGE OF AIRBNB
Sick and tired of bad hotels in remote locations? We have the dataset for you! Using publicly gathered data from Airbnb, we analyzed more than 10 million listings to better understand the landscape global travelers face in cities around the world. In the past nine years, over 200 million guests have chosen to stay with Airbnb in 191 different countries. How much for a bedroom in an Airbnb in Bordeaux? We’ve got you covered. A quick glance at the centerspread may be the ticket to avoiding your next “wish-we-could-have-that-nightback” booking in Barcelona.
Winter 2018
OUR GRAPHICS GUY GOT A PHONE CALL FROM THE CONSUMER SENTIMENT SURVEY: SURVEYS AND THE ECONOMIC DATA
A surprise phone call to our Graphics Guy on a warm Sunday afternoon. A market-moving consumer sentiment report released days later. What do these events have in common? We trace the journey of how the economic data investors rely upon is made, starting with a call our Graphics Guy received from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. It is a story you will not soon forget—though it may leave you wondering about the quality of some economic indicators.
Winter 2018
Point of View Fall 2017 Edition
Fall 2017
MALLRATS: THE PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE OF THE SHOPPING MALL
In the mid-1990s, a distinct species infested the suburban world: the mallrat. Fast becoming extinct, these once-great bipeds wasted hours of their lives looking for love, piercing ears, and scooping up compact discs in the great halls of commerce known as malls. Today’s world of online shopping appears to spell the end for mallrats. However, lost in the foreboding headlines are pockets of opportunity.
Fall 2017
GREENPIECE: THE BIRTH OF “GREEN BONDS”
Is top-down government action the only way to address global environmental issues? Not at all. In fact, despite the focus on one global power’s exit from a key climate accord, a burgeoning, bottom-up movement is taking shape, with the bond market—yes, you read that right—leading the “green” charge.
Fall 2017
BEYOND BITCOIN: THE DAWN OF “CRYPTOECONOMICS”
A few years ago we wrote about bitcoin. Since then, the price of a bitcoin soared to more than USD 4,500. But the media and many investors focus too much on bitcoin’s price, betraying little understanding of more fundamental institutional developments. We write to help catch investors up on “cryptoeconomics” and urge them not to dismiss bitcoin’s rise so easily.
Fall 2017
PEAK GLOBALIZATION?
Has the world reached peak globalization? Whether it is the election of Donald Trump or the Brexit vote, people seem to think that the progress towards and benefits of an increasingly interconnected world have ended. The way most people view these connections is via trade, but we argue that the nature of globalization has changed dramatically since 1870. Fears of peak globalization may be overdone. Also, a more interconnected world is a more prosperous one as seen by the rise in per capita output.
Fall 2017
Point of View Summer 2017 Edition
Summer 2017
Put It In Reverse, Tom Selleck: A Look At Reverse Mortgages
A generation of homeowners will soon retire. For whom savings consist mostly of their home, “reverse” mortgages appear to be a convenient way to access cash in retirement. But buyer beware! We explore the underlying mechanics of reverse mortgages and remind readers that houses are best lived in, not used as piggy banks.
Summer 2017
How We Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The Fed’s Big Balance Sheet
The Fed’s balance sheet unwind is all the rage in the media and the markets. Policymakers have committed to begin the process sometime later “this year.” We expect a gradual unwind to begin by fall, but we aren’t worried. Dire economic and market consequences from the Fed’s balance sheet will prove more imagined than real. And the big balance sheet is here to stay along with anew role for the Fed in money markets.
Summer 2017
Weighing The World
Earth is a planet teeming with life. Often when we think of life we think of our pets, livestock, insects, birds, fish and, of course, the 7+ billion homo sapiens scattered around the globe. However, taking stock of everything around us reveals a surprising picture. Estimating the weight—in million tonnes of carbon—of animal life on Earth and you find that the organisms we cannot even see with the naked eye comprise most of life on earth.
Summer 2017
India Undergoing Modi-Fications: Putting “Demonetization” In Perspective
You may have read about India’s recent campaign to remove high denomination bills from circulation, so-called “demonetization.” What you haven’t read about is IndiaStack. Or the 1 billion Indians who, since 2009, have been officially registered as citizens. Or the modernizing banking system. We look at the changes underway in India and explore the consequences of the Modi-nization of the world’s largest democracy.
Summer 2017
Point of View Winter 2017 Edition
Winter 2017
Peak Hipster: Gentrification and the Next Phase In Housing
Cities were left empty by a flight to the suburbs in the mid-to-late 20th century. However, in the last decade, a return to cities reshaped the housing market. Will the trend continue? We find that one key factor—demographics—explains much of the shift into and out of cities. A fresh look at demographic trends provides clues to the fate of cities as well as housing’s future. We don’t know what comes next with certainty, but we feel safe proclaiming “Peak Hipster.”
Winter 2017
“Can I Pay You With SDRs?”: Back To The Future In The Global Financial System
Stories about the Chinese renminbi’s inclusion in the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket made headlines in 2016. According to some, China’s currency is destined to be a major rival to the U.S. dollar and the euro on the global stage. Not so fast, we say. Thinking about what an SDR is and why it came to be may help investors understand the architecture of the global financial system today and its future. proclaiming “Peak Hipster.”
Winter 2017
May the Revenue Be With You
Many shook their heads in disbelief when Disney agreed to purchase Lucasfilm, the creator and owner of the Star Wars franchise, for $4 billion in 2012. Today, Disney might shake their heads at the naysayers. Four years and two mega-blockbusters later, the world’s most successful movie studio appears to have struck gold. proclaiming “Peak Hipster.”
Winter 2017
Knowledge and Learning In the 21st Century: An Optimist’s Perspective
Outrageous tuition costs. Mountainous student debt. Without help, higher education seems increasingly unattainable for many. Or is the future so dim? We contend that whether you are a farmer in Kenya, a dancer in Delhi or a software programmer in Berlin, learning something—anything—is cheaper, easier, faster, and more customized than ever before.
Winter 2017
Point of View Fall 2016 Edition
Fall 2016
Fiscal Policy: The Triumph of Hope Over Experience
“If only our politicians could get their act together, we’d do the obvious: rebuild bridges, airports, and roads with public funds.” So goes the battle cry of investors and citizens around the world, frustrated with years of slow global economic growth and low interest rates. We are all for better roads and airports, but spending money and creating wealth are not the same thing.
Fall 2016
Taking Shelter From Millennial Housing Myths
Millennials are different—they don’t want to own homes, they want to live in densely-populated urban areas near their friends, they have too much debt, and they don’t like responsibility. Or so go the feverish claims of many observers. We put the millennial generation under the microscope and find, contrary to homespun wisdom, they aren’t so different from prior generations.
Fall 2016
The Story of World History Through the Most Populous Cities
It may not be the story you learned in school, but by tracking the most populous cities throughout world history we see that the West barely makes it on the global map.
Fall 2016
Field of Screens: Why eSports are the Next Frontier in Global Sports
Kids wanting to be the next Tom Brady or Steph Curry start practicing at a young age. They spend hours on the field or court. But tomorrow’s Brady or Curry will more likely be found at home, tapping their keyboards to stardom. The future of sports lies in eSports, where a recent League of Legends tournament had more viewers than the Stanley Cup Final.
Fall 2016
Point of View Summer 2016 Edition
Summer 2016
Alexander Hamilton: Still Relevant After Two Centuries
A Tony Award-winning Broadway play, Hamilton, has wooed theatregoers and critics alike with Alexander Hamilton, the man and his battles, presented in hip hop form. What was he seeking to achieve as a Founding Father and later as Treasury Secretary of the United States? We focus on his ideas and argue that Hamilton remains relevant to modern economic policy and institutions.
Summer 2016
The Rise of the Three-ball: Basketball's Three-Point Shot and Why It Took So Long to Catch On
In 1979 the National Basketball Association (NBA) debuted a three-point line. Early on, most three-point attempts were last second heaves toward the hoop rather than strategic scoring attempts. By 2016, NBA teams shot nearly 30 three-pointers per game. What explains the rise in popularity of the long-range jumper and why did it take so long?
Summer 2016
Satellites: What Goes Around Makes the World Go Round
Next time you gaze up at the stars at night, remember that just above you, more than 500,000 man-made objects circle the Earth at 17,000 miles per hour (faster than a speeding bullet). Most of these are vestiges of old satellites. Today, there are almost 1,400 active satellites orbiting the Earth.
Summer 2016
Retail Therapy: Department Store Woes and the Future of Retail
Big department stores stocked with shelves of expensive inventory once dominated retail. Today the traditional “big box” department store business model is on thin ice as a growing share of purchases occur online or in smaller stores. We think through the problems confronting the mall mainstays and offer up visions of retail's future.
Summer 2016
Point of View Spring 2016 Edition
Spring 2016
Human, Economy and Pet: How Pets Are Changing Humans and the Economy
US consumers spend more on Spot and Garfield than they do on automobile insurance. That’s right. We detail the rise of pet spending and what it tells us about the American standard of living and retail marketplace.
Spring 2016
From Whale Oil To Oil Change: Productivity Trumps Everything
In 1850, New Bedford, Massachusetts, was the richest city in the world. In 1960, Detroit, Michigan, boasted the highest per capita income in the US. The tale of two cities and two industries (whale oil in one, motor oil in the other) is the topic at hand. For a time each commanded an unassailable market position. But the good times weren’t eternal. Here follows the story of why and how.
Spring 2016
Anatomy of the Smartphone: A User Manual For Its Role in the Global Economy
Most people can’t imagine life without their smartphones. But, in many parts of the world, smartphones are far more than mere luxury items. For users in developing nations, where most of the future smartphones will be sold, the “mobile internet” is the internet. The availability of mobile web and computing will continue to revolutionize world commerce more than any other technology in history.
Spring 2016
Monetary Policy Unmasked: Our Take On Negative Interest Rates
With four European central banks and one Asian central bank using NIRP (or “negative interest rate policy”), economics textbooks that teach that interest rates can’t go below zero are out of date. What did our professors get wrong, where is the real floor on interest rates and what does it all mean? (oh, and why did I have to pay $120 for that relic of a textbook?) We inquire.
Spring 2016
Point of View Winter 2016 Edition
Winter 2016
An Open Letter to Taylor Swift: Spotify and Music’s Future
Payden’s economics team members are big Taylor Swift fans. When we learned that she removed her music from online streaming music giant Spotify, we penned a letter to her (no response yet). We explore the future of the music industry, the impact of technology and argue streaming is here to stay. Press play and read on.
Winter 2016
Bribing the Maître D’: Why Is It So Hard to Reserve a Table at a Fine Restaurant?
In the American TV comedy Curb Your Enthusiasm, comedian Larry David highlights the difficulty of getting a table reservation when he tries to bribe the maître d’ with a $20 bill, but instead accidentally hands over his wife’s crumpled medicine prescription. We explore the economics–and taboos–of restaurant reservations and how things might be changing.
Winter 2016
Occupy Mars: The Challenges of Martian Colonization
The human species has the will to survive and explore. With the recent release of The Martian, starring Matt Damon, we examine the challenges of colonizing the Red Planet.
Winter 2016
Going Up or Down? What Elevators Tell Us About the Biggest Factor Altering the Global Economy Right Now
Paranoia runs deep about central bankers and politicians, but it’s really the algorithms that run our lives. We take the example of a recent elevator renovation at Payden’s global headquarters in Los Angeles as a segue into thinking about algorithms and how they are changing the global economy.
Winter 2016
Point of View Fall 2015 Edition
Fall 2015
WeChat: What the World Can Learn From China's Most Popular Messaging App
Discussions about China often sound like lectures on how the up-and-coming economy ought to behave. But, in at least one area, China is far ahead of its developed world peers: mobile payments. What can the West learn?
Fall 2015
Oil’s Obsolescence and the Bright Future for Energy
The days of burning wood to provide our energy are no more. Today the world depends on fossil fuels to power our homes, drive our cars, and even wrap our children’s sandwiches. But some think the era of fossil fuels is coming to an end as we harness new energy sources. Will solar power finally flip the switch on the world’s energy landscape?
Fall 2015
Sea it to Believe It: Shipping and the Rise of Global Trade
Your lifestyle would not be possible but for scores of silent giants slowly traversing the earth’s oceans. Swollen ships, up to 1.5 times as long as the Titanic, are responsible for transporting 90% of everything that you use.
Fall 2015
Indexing the World
Economist Friedrich Hayek mused, “The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.” We might draw the same lesson from a market index. From the dusty desks of newspaper men and academics to center stage in the global financial markets, market indices have become essential – if controversial – features of our modern investment landscape.
Fall 2015
Point of View Summer 2015 Edition
Summer 2015
Football and Finance: What Manchester United Teaches Us About the Global Economy and the Business of Sports
Peeking into the financial statements of the Manchester United Football Club we see that elite sports teams are among the organizations best positioned to profit from rising global wealth and interconnectedness.
Summer 2015
The Fed is Not Magical…Unless You Think REITs Are Magical
The Fed is Not Magical…Unless You Think REITs Are Magical
Summer 2015
The Sky's the Limit
The world is seeing a skyscraper boom spurred by technological breakthroughs, the growth of global wealth and the shifting of economic power from the West to the East. Here we explore how tall buildings have changed over time and if this means anything for the global economy.
Summer 2015
“This Is Your Captain Speaking, It Is Now Safe to Move Around the Globe.” Air Travel and the Myth of Stagnation
“This Is Your Captain Speaking, It Is Now Safe to Move Around the Globe.” Air Travel and the Myth of Stagnation
Summer 2015
Point of View Spring 2015 Edition
Spring 2015
Raising Your Standards: How Measures of Living Standards Mislead
For years pessimists have worried that American living standards have stagnated. We dig deeper into the data underlying the argument and discover there is more than meets the eye. Cheer up, you may be better off than the statistics make you think.
Spring 2015
Modi-nomics: The Optimistic Case for the World’s Third Largest Economy
Does India, under new leadership, face a new dawn? Prime Minister Narendra Modi brings new economic policies and a wave of optimism to India.
Spring 2015
Now Hiring: From Farmers to Programmers
University of Oxford researchers found that 47% of American jobs risk being replaced by computers. From loan officers to economists, your job (yes, you!) is probably next. But this has always been the case. Let us explain...
Spring 2015
The Original Flash Boys
Think high speed, techy traders seeking out information and trading faster than the average Joe are new to the financial markets? Think again. The quest for speed and near riskless profit has been with us for centuries.
Spring 2015
Point of View Fall 2014 Edition
Fall 2014
John Maynard Keynes: Economist by Day, High Flying Portfolio Manager by Night
The most famous economist of all time was also the chief investment officer at King’s College, Cambridge for 25 years. Apart from producing 16% annual returns, Keynes’ work as an investor tells us that the keys to investment performance often reside outside of economics.
Fall 2014
The Drought: America's Next Dust Bowl?
Drought doomsayers and deniers are both wrong. Despite the record levels of drought in California, understanding where water comes from and how it is used puts the historic dryness in perspective. We respond to questions from a local resident “Hal,” and leave him hopeful for our water future.
Fall 2014
Citius, Altius, Fortius: Faster, Higher, Stronger…But Have Humans Reached the Limits of Performance?
We look across a wide array of human sporting endeavors, from sprints to the grueling Kona Ironman, and conclude: human progress has slowed. But have we reached the limits of human athletic potential?
Fall 2014
Ubernomics: The Future is Here, It’s Just Not Evenly Distributed
A fleet of vehicles ready at a moment’s notice to ferry passengers anywhere they desire? It used to be such luxuries were reserved for Kings and American Presidents. Now an ordinary person like me enjoys the services.
Fall 2014
Point of View Summer 2014 Edition
Summer 2014
Crowdfunding: The Future of Capital, Banks Not Included
Person-to-person borrowing, lending, giving and investing will alter the capital-raising landscape. We look forward to the day when we no longer must rely on big, centralized banking organizations to finance new ventures.
Summer 2014
Sizing Up China: Will it Really Be the World's Largest Economy in 2014?
The world awoke on April 30, 2014 to discover that China would become the largest economy by year end, dethroning the United States from the top spot it has held since 1872. But, how do economists measure the size of economies for cross-country comparison?
Summer 2014
Rags to Riches: A Story of the Global Economy
The average Chinese citizen today boasts a higher standard of living than the average Briton did in 1980. Don’t believe us? Take a look at the evolution of per-capita income across the world and find out which countries have boomed and which have faltered.
Summer 2014
Is Inequality the Biggest Problem the World Economy Faces?
A recent book by French economist Thomas Piketty has the world abuzz about inequality. Before arriving at conclusions, we examine how economic inequality measured and how has it changed over time. How worried should investors be?
Summer 2014
Point of View Spring 2014 Edition
Spring 2014
Deflation: We Fear You Not
Deflation fears grip the globe. One central banker called deflation the “ogre stalking the world economy.” Should you be afraid? We say no. Deflation is more common than you think and far more desirable than you might imagine.
Spring 2014
What the 1929 Doomsday Chart Won’t Tell You (And Why It Matters)
A troubling chart floating around the internet portends a 1929-style stock market collapse. Will it happen? Perhaps, but not because this chart says so.
Spring 2014
“Suppose a Martian Visits Earth…”: Answering the Most Important Macro Question of 2014
Two groups continue to battle over the answer to the most important macro question of 2014: how much slack is there in the US labor market? Who is right? How can we decide? Perhaps a Martian could help...
Spring 2014
The Rise of the Global Asset Management Industry: Too Big to Fail, Too?
While regulators fight the last war, other beasts lurk in the global financial system: big asset managers. But are they too big to fail? What are the consequences for asset markets? We inquire.
Spring 2014
Point of View Winter 2014 Edition
Winter 2014
Bitcoin: The Future of Money
Bitcoin, the fledgling digital currency, may not unseat the US dollar as the world’s currency of choice, but we think its rise provides a glimpse into the future of money and financial markets.
Winter 2014
Yellin’ About Yellen: The Next Revolution in Monetary Policy
Janet Yellen is set to become the most powerful woman in world history. As she ascends to the helm of the world’s most important central bank her every word will command the undivided attention of politicians and ?nancial market participants.
Winter 2014
Getting Better All The Time
In 1981 more than 50% of the world lived in extreme poverty. By 2010, only 21% of earth’s inhabitants faced such a circumstance.
Winter 2014
The “Air Pocket”: Explaining Fixed-Income Market Turbulence in 2013
Interest rate volatility in 2013 had more in common with aeronautical turbulence than with economic fundamentals.
Winter 2014
Point of View September-October 2013
September-October 2013
The Bubble is Not Back: Putting the US Housing Market in Perspective
Despite worries about a new bubble in housing, the real story is a classic supply and demand mismatch.
September-October 2013
China’s Financial System: Does a Crisis Lurk in the Shadows?
Economies and financial systems are a bit like rivers. Restrict and constrain them you might, but contain them you will not. What does this suggest for China?
September-October 2013
The Rise of Information Machines
In 1986, the sum total of the world’s information capacity could be stored in two newspapers for every person on Earth. Today, a vast array of devices create and store information. We think this will ignite a new era of economic prosperity.
September-October 2013
The Promise of Bioscience: Once Science Fiction, Now Reality
Imagine living 150 years. Impossible? Until recently, yes. But in bioscience, science fiction is becoming reality.
September-October 2013
Point of View June-July 2013
June-July 2013
The Leverage Myth
Can economies grow in a time of debt? Yes, they can.
June-July 2013
The Untold Story of World Trade
At the heart of human progress lies automation. The driverless future is closer than it appears.
June-July 2013
The World's Biggest Bond Portfolio
The burgeoning Federal Reserve balance sheet and what it means.
June-July 2013
Exchange–Traded Funds: Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow
The rapid growth in ETFs has transformed the financial landscape-but investor scrutiny is needed now more than ever.
June-July 2013
Point of View January 2013
January 2013
Shale: Hope or Hype?
Is the “shale revolution” built on economic hope or unrealistic hype?
January 2013
Driverless Vehicles
At the heart of human progress lies automation. The driverless future is closer than it appears.
January 2013
Gutenberg Online: The End of Education as We Know It
Gutenberg’s most recent moment: why higher education will never be the same.
January 2013
South Korea: Lessons for Global Development
The “miracle” of South Korea’s rise and what it means for other emerging market economies.
January 2013
Point of View Third Quarter 2012
Third Quarter 2012
The Myth of the Money Multiplier
The money multiplier is at the heart of global monetary machine—and yet the money multiplier is missing. Or, as we argue in this text, it never existed.
Third Quarter 2012
Is the Future of Space in Private Hands?
With the passing of Neil Armstrong and shuttering of NASA’s space shuttle program, we must wonder at the future of extra- Earthly travel. Does NASA’s retreat entail a dark age for space travel?
Third Quarter 2012
Coffee: A New Cup of Innovation
In a rapidly changing world, has coffee kept up? We brew up a look at the evolution of the coffee market.
Third Quarter 2012
Japan: A Contrarian View
Japan. We hear “basket case,” we hear “lost decades,” we hear a nation “on the verge of implosion.” But, is all the apocalyptic rhetoric misplaced?
Third Quarter 2012
Point of View Second Quarter 2012
Second Quarter 2012
Scrambled Eggs and the Eurosystem
The eurosystem is like a plate of scrambled eggs. Let us explain.
Second Quarter 2012
Dissecting the Unemployment Rate
Despite the animating force employment statistics have on financial markets, there is much more to the unemployment rate than meets the eye.
Second Quarter 2012
The Clash That Defined Modern Economics
Two titans of economic thinking square off in a bare-knuckle brawl of wit and wisdom that defined modern economics.
Second Quarter 2012
Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs): A Primer
How the wonderful world of modern trade and production distorts statistical reality or what the iPhone tells us about the trade deficit. Among the hidden elements of the energy world lay Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs), an instrumental, though frequently unnoticed piece in the US energy puzzle.
Second Quarter 2012
Point of View First Quarter 2012
First Quarter 2012
The Fallacy of Probability Applied to Societal Events
Why the probability of a eurozone breakup is not a roll of the dice. Proceed with caution when predicting societal events.
First Quarter 2012
The Great Restructuring and the Case For US Fixed Income
The US economy faces a Great Restructuring. There is no reason to think that the restructuring will be rapid nor is there reason to think it will be permanent. Invest accordingly.
First Quarter 2012
Texting Twenty-First Century Trade Data: A Socratic Dialogue
The GDP also includes cigarettes, air pollution and broken windows repaired. So is it still a useful gauge of our well-being?
First Quarter 2012
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): What’s It Good For?
How the wonderful world of modern trade and production distorts statistical reality or what the iPhone tells us about the trade deficit.
First Quarter 2012