Payden Global Inflation-Linked Bond Fund

The conflict in Iran has moved to the forefront of investors’ attention since the end of February, and market sentiment in the coming weeks will likely be closely tied to developments in the Middle East. At this stage, uncertainty remains very high regarding the potential duration, scale, and broader implications of the conflict, adding another layer of complexity to an already challenging macroeconomic environment. The primary macroeconomic risk stems from the possibility of a prolonged disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil supply transits. Markets experienced significant volatility in the first week of March, with some of the moves amplified by the unwinding of crowded positions. The magnitude of the reaction has varied across asset classes. Government bond yields have moved sharply, whilst credit markets have remained relatively orderly thus far.

Notwithstanding the risks around the conflict, our macroeconomic outlook remains relatively optimistic with risks tilted to the downside. The US economy remains central to our global outlook in 2026. We believe the current divergence between strong GDP growth and weakening labour markets in the US is unusual and unlikely to persist. In our view, the US economy faces a binary path: either reaccelerating as technology-driven productivity gains take hold or slipping into recession if labour market softness begins to weigh more broadly on economic activity. Regardless of the outcome, US inflation is expected to continue moderating. This disinflationary trend, combined with labour-market weakness, should allow the Fed to continue easing policy towards neutral and potentially beyond. Stickier inflation remains a risk to this central view, a risk that has recently increased given the developments in the Middle East.

Outside the US, most developed economies appear relatively resilient, supported by moderate economic growth, declining inflation, and accommodating or easing monetary policy. Japan stands as an exception, where gradual policy tightening is expected to continue. Moderating inflation and range-bound inflation expectations have historically been associated with a negative correlation between interest rates and risk assets. With economic growth facing more downside risks, we believe portfolios with a balanced and diversified allocation between duration and credit risk should be better positioned to navigate the uncertainty and range of potential outcomes in 2026. The conflict in Iran is a direct threat to our inflation view, and we remain mindful of these risks for the time being. Greater dispersion across and within sectors emphasises the need for diversification and strong bottom-up fundamental analysis.

Despite the uncertain economic backdrop, credit valuations remain on the most expensive end of the historical range, even as corporate fundamentals appear relatively healthy. In this environment, we prefer to distribute risk in our portfolios in a more balanced manner across duration and credit. Consistent with our outlook, we maintain modest overweight positions in higher-quality credit sectors, including investment-grade corporates and select high-quality securitised assets.

Given the ongoing concerns around economic growth, we also favour greater exposure to duration, positioning portfolios to benefit from further declines in interest rates. Within this allocation, we prefer intermediate-maturity US Treasuries and select emerging-market sovereign bonds. We are also positioned to benefit if the gap between short-term and long-term interest rates grows wider (a "steepening" yield curve), especially in the US and Germany, which we believe could provide some protection in an economic slowdown or if fiscal policies become more expansionary. In our currency strategy, we hold an underweight position in the US dollar, although less pronounced than earlier in 2025. This positioning is expressed against a diversified basket of developed and emerging-market currencies, such as the euro, the Japanese yen, and the Brazilian real.